Real Estate Foresight Updates, Media Coverage, Conferences
“Navigating the Property Data Landscape” is a chapter Robert Ciemniak, Founder-CEO of Real Estate Foresight, contributed to the new book “Understanding China’s Real Estate Markets” by Prof. Bing Wang and Prof. Dr. Tobias Just The China housing sector is rich in data, some with a high frequency, but to interpret the data correctly one has to take into[…]
A few highlights from Real Estate Foresight’s CityScreener(TM) Report for December, incl. wrap-up of 2020 data on annual house price growth (CREIS): -Dongguan the ‘winner’, ahead of Hangzhou and Xi’an, also strong on multiple other metrics -Shaoxing in the top-10 for the fourth year in a row -Shanghai with the biggest gain in the growth[…]
Just published Real Estate Foresight’s final piece for clients in 2020, the monthly China Property report. If you monitor the China property sector – keep an eye on the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) figures from PBoC (top chart below) linked to shantytown renovation schemes and cash compensation for relocations that has been supporting volumes, in[…]
For investors with direct or indirect exposure to China property (and the housing market as the largest piece), we have now put Real Estate Foresight’s research package into one ‘China Forecast’ portal, with the feed of REF Research, along with REF City Reports and more. This is in addition to the market intelligence platform Signallium(TM)[…]
Just published to clients our Quarterly Market Update on Data Centers in China by Real Estate Foresight / Robotic Online Intelligence – drawing on the Q3 disclosures (esp. GDS, 21Vianet, Chindata, Shanghai AtHub, Guangzhou Aofei, Beijing Sinnet) and the latest from our databases of projects and deals (some 120 new or updates since early September),[…]
We have deployed our technology at the sister venture Robotic Online Intelligence to search, capture, filter and present on a daily basis a range of headline anecdotes, local media reports, opinions and policy news from local Chinese sources (translations via Google Translate API) to help track the impact on property firms, broader corporate environment and[…]
Robotic Online Intelligence (ROI) Introduces Signallium(TM) – China Property: Market Intelligence and Signals From China Property Markets
HONG KONG, CHINA / ACCESSWIRE / January 15, 2020 / Robotic Online Intelligence Ltd (ROI), an AI-powered business intelligence and analytics startup, announces the launch of Signallium™ | China Property, a market signals and intelligence service for foreign investors with exposure to local China property sector. FOCUSED ON CHINA PROPERTY – THE WORLD’S MOST IMPORTANT[…]
Briefly sharing how we got from research into software and AI and how we deploy neural networks, a short interview with Robert Ciemniak, the Founder-CEO of Real Estate Foresight and Robotic Online Intelligence on the sidelines of the Beryl Elites conference. Our focus is on optimising how we as humans absorb and filter information.
The Advancements in Technology Behind Data – Full Video of our Panel Session at Beryl Elites Conference in New York
Satellite radars, alternative data from the use of SaaS products and IoT sensors, quantum computing questions… plenty of new applications but keep in mind the risks around algorithms, overfitting, and how things need to come together operationally for the buy-side user – where the cloud has made a real difference thus far; exciting topics with[…]
What next for Hong Kong property prices? Here’s our updated Curated News Brief with the recent local news/headlines in December about the Hong Kong property markets – focused on the market price signals and views and opinions from a wide range of local sources (translations via Google API): A range of forecasts for 2020: 1)[…]
China data puzzle: how come there is such a gap between the reported property new starts and completions? At the first glance (chart below), this looks concerning. But the correct data interpretation in China often requires a much more detailed view. The two data points may have different definitions/scope of coverage. The sales figure composition[…]
China Property: sales volume growth in 2019 at a national level in gross floor area has surprised many with its resilience (see the red line on the chart below – year-to-date year-on-year measure, all property not just residential), but what has contributed to that growth? In a by-region cut, it is clear that the Western[…]
Earlier today on our panel ‘The Advancements in Technology Behind Data’ at Beryl Elites 3rd Annual Beryl Elites Conference in New York. Some dose of skepticism on the promises of quantum and AI ‘always 5 years away’; proven major change from the cloud and open source as the buy side integrates data into their operations; some[…]
China housing: lower-tier cities are no longer the driver of the volume growth for new homes. The green line on the chart below shows what the national sales volume growth (YTD Y/Y) would have been if we had excluded the lower-tier cities (i.e. only using data for 4 Tier-1 and 36 Tier-2 cities). They were[…]
China rental housing sector will be getting more attention with two major providers recently filing for the IPOs in the US. Real Estate Foresight published a primer on the sector, “ULTRA China – Urban Long Term Rental Apartments” a year ago (available on request for institutional investors and funds). At Robotic Online Intelligence (ROI), we[…]
Some points from the latest monthly China Property report by Real Estate Foresight covering the signals from the property markets: 1) Sales volumes remain resilient, without much change from the high 2018 base, driven in recent months by the strength of the Western region 2) Higher-frequency weekly data for a sample of 13 major cities[…]
Real Estate Foresight’s data analysis featured in SCMP today: https://lnkd.in/eRgxxf6 In China housing markets, we have been paying particular attention to the developments in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) and the 9 cities on the mainland – since we published the primer ‘Baywatch’ report on GBA earlier this year, as well as the[…]
What next for Hong Kong property prices? From our sister venture Robotic Online Intelligence – a selection of recent local news/headlines about the Hong Kong property markets – focused on the market price signals and views and opinions from a wide range of local sources (translations via Google API): https://lnkd.in/fr7WpTP Search and selection powered by[…]
As bonds issued by Chinese property developers make up a large share of the global high-yield universe, the significance of the Chinese housing markets goes far and beyond their local nature. Robert Ciemniak presented and joined the panel “The Forces Shaping China’s Property Sector” at HSBC 3rd Annual Asia Credit Conference in Hong Kong on September[…]
Exploring the relationship between our Western media headlines sentiment index on China (the blue line) and the Shanghai stock market index (red). No overall statistical pattern but there are some periods of strong correlation. It could be explained through the media reports simply covering extensively the latest market movements, though we use a moving average[…]
From the in-depth project market due diligence to strategy development and city selection models, REF supports clients in more data- and analytics-driven decisions – in the market that is no longer ‘easy money’ for developers, with high land prices, more competition and discerning buyers
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Private Equity Real Estate Investors, Funds, Lenders
Independent and fast assessment of opportunities and underwriting assumptions, extensive and ongoing market research, and support for investor communications, help clients through all stages of the China investments
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High Yield, Long/ Short, Event Driven Funds, Investors
Investors in securities can gain the edge through a much finer, granular view on what’s really happening in the (often misunderstood) China housing market and its sub-segments, related data, and in how to interpret the latest events
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Deep insights into the China housing market inform the persistent macro questions about ‘the bubble’ and ‘the systemic risk’ in China, with the economic significance of the sector, impact on the commodities markets, its ties to shadow banking, local government debt and policy makers sensitivity to the sector
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With flagship China Property reports and private briefings, we help clients form a view, identify turning points in the market, and provide clients with extensive analysis of latest data, qualitative and policy factors
CITIES & DISTRICTS
With CityScreener™ reports, we help clients identify opportunity areas and support clients in top-down multi-criteria city selection and assessment and monitoring of exposure, based on relative attractiveness of cities
With QuantiviableTM we provide clients with an online analytics companion – an interactive charting tool that uses our ranking-data for evaluating relative attractiveness of districts, developers or cities on multiple criteria
With City Reports, we help clients gain quick and practical insights into housing prices and sales volumes dynamics, inventory, land sales, new starts, at a city and district level for major cities.
Through in-depth market studies, we support clients in due diligence and strategic project decisions, providing an independent assessment rigorously grounded in a combination of data-driven primary and secondary research
With Project Detail Analytics, we help clients monitor sales at a project level, collecting, crunching and visualizing the data in an innovative way.
How are we different?
We apply advanced data analytics tools and combine data science and technology with on-the-ground research, with a track record in accurately forecasting the Chinese housing markets.
Technology solutions and skills we have developed enable us to provide clients with unique insights by capturing and analyzing larger volumes of data as well as making sense of extensive qualitative content.
Thanks to collaboration with data partners, especially Beijing-based SouFun - China Index Academy, we are able to build our proprietary analytics on top of private raw data.
At the same time, thanks to our specialization and focus on China property markets, we stay very close to the market talk and engage with wide range of market participants on a daily basis, which gives us first-hand insights into what is going on. Our founder Robert Ciemniak is a frequent speaker, moderator and panelist at key industry events on China.
… with house price forecasts, city selection, due diligence market studies
Technology & Analytics
… driven, working with small and big data and proprietary tools
… include SouFun-China Index Academy in Beijing
Independence & Specialization
… independent from brokerage, fund raising, securities trading, and focused on China real estate markets