| 12MMA Y/Y (%) | YTD Y/Y (%) | MONTHLY Y/Y (%) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Jan’26 | Dec’25 | Δ | Jan’26 | Dec’25 | Δ | Jan’26 | Dec’25 | Δ |
| 12M (%) | 3M (%) | 1M (%) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Jan’26 | Dec’25 | Δ | Jan’26 | Dec’25 | Δ | Jan’26 | Dec’25 | Δ |
| Metric | Dec’25 | Sep’25 | Δ |
|---|
SOURCES OF DATA
This data and analysis have been prepared by Real Estate Foresight, based on the underlying raw data from the official Hong Kong SAR sources: Land Registry, Rating and Valuation Department (RVD), Housing Bureau, and Lands Department.
CALCULATION DEFINITIONS
12MMA Y/Y: Year-on-year change in the trailing 12-month moving average.
YTD Y/Y: Year-to-date change versus the same period in the prior year.
Monthly Y/Y: Single-month comparison versus the same month in the prior year.
MTC: Months-to-Clear, calculated as unsold inventory divided by the trailing 12-month average monthly new-home sales volume.
DATA CAVEATS AND CLARIFICATIONS
- Unsold inventory figures in each category have been adjusted downward by 8% for "out-of-market" units (as per Housing Bureau estimates), such as those reserved for self-use or let out by developers (e.g. as serviced apartments), based on data from the Housing Bureau.
- The same 12-month average new-home unit sales figure is used to calculate Months-to-Clear (MTC) for both the under-construction and completed-unsold inventory categories.
- Price indices are based on secondary market transactions. "Select Developments" refers to a curated basket of large-scale residential estates tracked by the Rating and Valuation Department (RVD).
- RVD notes that price data for the latest three months are provisional and may be subject to change.
- While the RVD and the Land Registry do not provide a fixed timetable for data releases, both appear to update their data on a monthly basis, covering the prior month. The sales data tends to be released earlier in the month, before the price data.
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The home sales 12M growth remained strong in May 2026, with both primary and secondary markets continuing to accelerate. New home sales growth accelerated by 7.1 percentage points to 52.7% y/y, while secondary transactions strengthened by 4.2pp to 34.5% y/y. In absolute terms, the 12MMA of new home sales rose further to 1,992 units, extending above Feb’s previous record high of 1,915 units and remaining well above the prior cycle peak of 1,818 units reached in Mar 2008. Secondary sales also continued to improve, with the 12MMA increasing to 4,091 units, although this remains significantly below the historical peak of 10,178 units recorded in Dec 2010.
Prices improved further in Apr 2026. The all-developments index rose 10.5% y/y, with growth accelerating by 0.4pp from Mar 2026, while the select developments measure was stronger at +11.3% y/y. This brings the all-developments index to 20.5% below the Sep 2021 peak, after recovering from its Mar 2025 trough. The current index level is roughly back to late-2023 levels and close to where it stood in early 2017.
Inventory dynamics improved further in Mar 2026. Completed unsold stock declined by 2,760 units to 18,400 from 21,160 in Dec 2025, based on quarterly data. Months-to-Clear for completed unsold inventory tightened to 9.9 months from 12.4, using the trailing 12-month pace of new home sales. This marked the third consecutive quarter of MTC improvement, driven by both lower absolute inventory and a stronger sales pace.