| 12MMA Y/Y (%) | YTD Y/Y (%) | MONTHLY Y/Y (%) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Jan’26 | Dec’25 | Δ | Jan’26 | Dec’25 | Δ | Jan’26 | Dec’25 | Δ |
| 12M (%) | 3M (%) | 1M (%) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Jan’26 | Dec’25 | Δ | Jan’26 | Dec’25 | Δ | Jan’26 | Dec’25 | Δ |
| Metric | Dec’25 | Sep’25 | Δ |
|---|
SOURCES OF DATA
This data and analysis have been prepared by Real Estate Foresight, based on the underlying raw data from the official Hong Kong SAR sources: Land Registry, Rating and Valuation Department (RVD), Housing Bureau, and Lands Department.
CALCULATION DEFINITIONS
12MMA Y/Y: Year-on-year change in the trailing 12-month moving average.
YTD Y/Y: Year-to-date change versus the same period in the prior year.
Monthly Y/Y: Single-month comparison versus the same month in the prior year.
MTC: Months-to-Clear, calculated as unsold inventory divided by the trailing 12-month average monthly new-home sales volume.
DATA CAVEATS AND CLARIFICATIONS
- Unsold inventory figures in each category have been adjusted downward by 8% for "out-of-market" units (as per Housing Bureau estimates), such as those reserved for self-use or let out by developers (e.g. as serviced apartments), based on data from the Housing Bureau.
- The same 12-month average new-home unit sales figure is used to calculate Months-to-Clear (MTC) for both the under-construction and completed-unsold inventory categories.
- Price indices are based on secondary market transactions. "Select Developments" refers to a curated basket of large-scale residential estates tracked by the Rating and Valuation Department (RVD).
- RVD notes that price data for the latest three months are provisional and may be subject to change.
- While the RVD and the Land Registry do not provide a fixed timetable for data releases, both appear to update their data on a monthly basis, covering the prior month. The sales data tends to be released earlier in the month, before the price data.
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The home sales 12M growth remained strong in Jul 2026, although momentum moderated across both primary and secondary markets. New home sales growth slowed by 14.2 percentage points to 27.0% y/y, while secondary transactions moderated by 4.2pp to 31.9% y/y. In absolute terms, the 12MMA of new home sales declined to 1,891 units from 1,980 in Jun and May’s record high of 1,992 units, but remained above the prior cycle peak of 1,818 units reached in Mar 2008. Secondary sales also eased slightly, with the 12MMA declining to 4,225 units from 4,245 in Jun, and remained well below the historical peak of 10,178 units recorded in Dec 2010.
Price growth continued to accelerate in Jun 2026. The all-developments index rose 12.7% y/y, with growth accelerating by 0.3 percentage points from May 2026, while the select developments measure was slightly stronger at +12.9% y/y. This leaves the all-developments index still 20.3% below its Sep 2021 peak, while extending its recovery from the Mar 2025 trough. The current index level is now roughly back to mid-2024 levels and close to where it stood in early 2017.
Inventory dynamics improved further in Jun 2026. Completed unsold stock declined by 1,000 units to 19,000 from 20,000 in Mar 2026, based on quarterly data. Months-to-Clear for completed unsold inventory tightened to 8.8 months from 9.9, using the trailing 12-month pace of new home sales. This marked the fourth consecutive quarter of MTC improvement, supported by both lower absolute inventory and a stronger trailing sales pace.