Robert Ciemniak, Founder-CEO of Real Estate Foresight, will be speaking PERE Asia Summit on February 20-24, where he will be giving a talk about the China housing markets. 

China national new homes sales remain down at -26% (Jan-Nov y/y), new starts at -39%, and house prices (70 cities) at -2.3% (Nov y/y). But the stocks and offshore bonds of many developers have rallied in recent weeks.

The latest policy easing and stimulus measures in support of the housing market since November are one tick in a box for a major market catalyst. But you can't fully see the policy impact in the housing numbers just yet, the overall consumer confidence remains low. The reversal of zero-Covid is another 'tick'. But then all the waves need to pass first. The third one, some form of resolution to the Evergrande situation (as a signal of how it will be handled in the end), remains still a question.

Then come the questions about the fundamental demand-supply balance for new homes with all the structural changes and new policy directives, looking further out 5-10 years. A topic Real Estate Foresight has been working on too.

Robert will be sharing the REF's 11th annual forecast, the latest market intel, and their take on some of the biggest questions about the China housing markets.

Event details: https://lnkd.in/gRVH5X8w