China Property Signals (#38): The 5-Year Mark

About this Newsletter: Get a quick but more granular view of (still) one of the most important sectors in China, with the weekly chart and commentary from Real Estate Foresight (REF) - drawing on 14+ years of REF's research on China housing markets.

It's almost exactly 5 years since Evergrande troubles really hit the headlines globally in August / September 2021 (though the bonds and stock had been falling since around May 2021).

Here's a 're-print' of charts we posted back then - measuring the relative frequency with which the company appeared in the media headlines:

Coinciding with this 5-year 'anniversary', the recent sentencing of senior executives and court rulings on the bankruptcy of the main Evergrande subsidiary mark the symbolic end of an era for the China housing market - which is gradually taking a more sustainable form.

Looking at the latest July 2026 data (NBS) on a 12-month rolling basis, the national residential new home sales (in GFA) were at 39% of their June 2021 peak (675 million sqm vs. 1,728 million sqm), while new starts were only at 21% of their March 2021 peak (366 million sqm vs. 1,706 million sqm).

To discover more about our work on China property, please message Robert Ciemniak directly or visit https://www.realestateforesight.com