China Property Signals (#31): What To Expect From May National New Home Sales Data

About this Newsletter: Get a quick but more granular view of (still) one of the most important sectors in China, with the weekly chart and commentary from Real Estate Foresight (REF) - drawing on 14+ years of REF's research on China housing markets.

The official NBS national new home sales data for May is expected in mid-June.

In our research at Real Estate Foresight, we use a higher-frequency indicator to approximate the direction of the monthly NBS data. 'Higher frequency' is a relative term, and in this case, we look at the weekly CREIS data. We consider the daily data too noisy.

Based on that weekly data through May 31 (end of the latest weekly data cycle) for 15 cities where we have consistent data (the red line in the chart below), we would expect an improvement (less negative) figure in the monthly national NBS data (the black line) due mid-June:

This is an extract from the REF Weekly New Home Sales Report, one of the several regular reports in the REF China Property Research subscription service.