China Property: Shenzhen and Shanghai new home price growth throughout the 2021-2025 downturn

This animation from Real Estate Foresight Limited (REF) illustrates how two Tier-1 cities followed very different paths since 2021 (with mid-2021 as a starting point of a market downturn).

Based on the official NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) new home price growth indices, we are showing here the year-on-year changes for each month from January 2021 to November 2025.

Shanghai and Shenzhen were in the same ballpark initially, then diverged completely in 2023, and now are getting closer again.

Some data caveats apply - product and location composition change, difference in local policies, structural shifts, all impact the indices. Arithmetically, it's possible for a city to show a positive growth for new home prices thanks to the sales of higher-end properties, even if these higher-end properties offer/sell at discounts.