The key official (NBS) macro property indicator released today by NBS for new home sales value shows either a  -17% decline or a  +18% positive growth, depending on whether you compare this September to September a year ago (that's the decline) or the Jan-Sep period this year to the equivalent in 2020 (slower but still a strong growth). 

Most headlines today seem focused only on the former. 

In today's Data Update from Real Estate Foresight, we look,  as always, at a wide range of metrics and calculations, to help investors form a more comprehensive view.

We say, "look also at the bars, not just the lines" (chart below).

The factors to consider include strong base effects from the 2020 Covid downturn and the subsequent quick pickup, the sales push by developers earlier in the year, and then the recent slowdown in the markets with the Evergrande fallout.