China Property: Results of the "Draw the Line" 2025 Survey

As part of the 13th annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight (REF), this year we hosted in-person meetings in Hong Kong on Feb 10 and in Singapore on Feb 25.

During these sessions, we ask participants to 'draw the line' predicting the path for a very specific metric: the China national new home sales in GFA (as officially published by NBS), in terms of the monthly change for the rolling 12 months vs the prior 12 months, for the next 12 months.

The chart below shows the ‘Draw The Line’ 2025 predictions from the two meetings and the online contributions.

The expectations tend to be in the -5% to -10% range but vary widely from approximately -20% to +20%, compared to the actual -14% for 2024: