Just published to clients the Real Estate Foresight's monthly China Property report for August.
The postponed land auctions and the administrative reductions in maximum premiums for land (between 5 and 30 percentage points; in Shenzhen also a 3%-9% reduction for home price caps) in several major cities have been the major significant new developments in August.
The average land prices of the first batches of land sales for the 22 cities under the new rules have increased by 15% vs the equivalent in 2020 – arguably not matching the policy objectives, hence the changes for the next batches of land sales.
The chart below - using higher-frequency weekly new home sales data in select cities as an indication of changes in the national sales figure due mid-month. Sales volume growth rates are clearly slowing down, with now the high base bounce-back in 2020 after prior Covid lockdowns. Still, even after various adjustments or 2-year calculations, sales volumes remain strong.
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The postponed land auctions and the administrative reductions in maximum premiums for land (between 5 and 30 percentage points; in Shenzhen also a 3%-9% reduction for home price caps) in several major cities have been the major significant new developments in August.
The average land prices of the first batches of land sales for the 22 cities under the new rules have increased by 15% vs the equivalent in 2020 – arguably not matching the policy objectives, hence the changes for the next batches of land sales.
The chart below - using higher-frequency weekly new home sales data in select cities as an indication of changes in the national sales figure due mid-month. Sales volume growth rates are clearly slowing down, with now the high base bounce-back in 2020 after prior Covid lockdowns. Still, even after various adjustments or 2-year calculations, sales volumes remain strong.