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China Property: Prevention of "Disorderly Expansion"
Posted: 6 March, 2023

China Property: In the past weeks, we have seen more signs of improvements in the housing market metrics, with the various gauges of new home sales growth turning less negative, more cities with rising prices m/m, and lower inventory levels (but the very slow pace of clearing due to low sales) on limited incremental new supply, as land sales continue to decline by most measures in Jan-Feb.

But, as per the policy messages from the National People's Congress underway, support for the sector comes with the prevention of "disorderly expansion".

We do expect a proper recovery but would curb the enthusiasm as to how far it will go.

Earlier today, we published the latest China Property report by Real Estate Foresight, going into the very details of all the key metrics of sales, prices, land, inventory, and macro factors, and our reasoning for the forecast.