China Property - A postcard from Xi'an: the strongest city in terms of the relative new home price growth since the onset of the property downturn in 2021, with a relatively smaller decline in volumes (second picture).

Xi'an's 2023 GDP at 1.2 trillion RMB (around USD 166 billion) was up 5.2% in real terms vs 2022 and has increased at a 5-year CAGR of 7.5% (calculated on nominal figures). The city's permanent urban population of over 10 million people rose by over 200,000 people in the past 2 years. With a strong industrial base, technology focus, and the city's regional role, the property market did very well in the past, also considering lower average price levels compared to other major cities.

We were highlighting the positive outlook for Xi'an in Real Estate Foresight (REF) CityScreener(TM) insights starting in 2015-2016.

The current market dynamics in the downturn, though, got more complicated with a big difference between new homes (prices rising further with changing composition of what's sold, at lower volumes; some local media reports highlight in contrast larger primary discounts these days) vs secondary house price declines, in line with the other cities. The economic focus is clearly shifting to other sectors.

In terms of land acquisitions by 57 major developers in Jan-Mar 2024, Xi'an ranked #1 in terms of land planned GFA sold and #2 in terms of land value (behind Hangzhou).

Lastly, property aside, it's hard to compete with the Shaanxi delicacies (last picture)...