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China Macro-Property Indicators for April 2022 (NBS)
Posted: 16 May, 2022

From today's Real Estate Foresight Data Update based on the official NBS Jan-Apr data: The NBS national residential new home sales (GFA) for Jan-Apr show a drop of -25% compared to the same period in 2021, more negative than -19% for Jan-Mar and -14% for Jan-Feb. The national sales volumes show a smaller sales decline than the major cities or developers. 


The figures are almost exactly the same as our forecast from the beginning of the year for the 12M y/y growth for Jan-Apr (-15.2% vs actual -14.8%).


New starts, land sales, and investment are all more negative, as one would expect with the wave of the recent lockdowns. 


When new China property data comes out, we slice and dice the info to get a more in-depth assessment of the market. With significant base effects of the 2020 lockdown, subsequent recovery, then distress among developers, policy easing, and recent lockdowns, some data distortions and varying definitions, the readout gets more complex.