China Property - data twists to new home sales figures at a national level:
With the data distortions due to Covid in 2020 (big drop in sales volumes, with a subsequent strong rebound), there are significant base effects in the monthly y/y growth comparisons. Hence the same data can indicate an almost 20% drop in terms of the monthly y/y growth for August (in value), as highlighted in some of today's media reports, as well as an over 20% increase, the opposite, in terms of the year-to-date (Jan-Aug) year-on-year growth - but slowing down vs prior months.
The dashboard below: Real Estate Foresight's Data Update on macro-property data from NBS released today looks at a whole range of metrics to present a more comprehensive picture, and highlights clear signs of declines in land sales on multiple measures, as well as the 3-month y/y volume growth turning negative.