Today's official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates a major improvement in the national sales volumes in the Jan-Feb period.

In YTD y/y terms, the national residential new home sales (GFA) turned much less negative to -0.6% vs -26.8% for Dec and turned positive in RMB terms.
 
The national residential new home sales (GFA) 12M Y/Y growth for Jan-Feb turned less negative to -25.8% compared to -26.8% for Dec - a change in direction in line with our latest forecast of -25.2%.

We updated our forecast to an earlier improvement a few weeks ago, on the back of the weekly indicators, as well as the monthly price indices for Jan (NBS and CREIS) and Feb (CREIS), local anecdotal evidence, and the messages from the Two Meetings; but still keeping the full year view at +6%.