The latest animation from Real Estate Foresight illustrates what has happened to the China housing market since the onset of the downturn in mid-2021. The data represents the official NBS house price growth indices 1M (X-axis) and 12M (Y-axis) growth rates.
See how the 'bubbles' retreated from mid-2021, then picked up in Jan-Mar 2023 on the boost from a big shift in policy end of 2022, but then retreated again since April this year on the renewed concerns and weakness in demand, underwhelming stimulus measures.
But the impact of the latest policy easing (and un-tightening) does not show in the data yet.
At the city level, we highlighted Tier-1 cities as even within that small group there are big differences (Shenzhen and Guangzhou vs Beijing and Shanghai). On the other hand, Chengdu has retained its relative lead.
The NBS price growth indices tend to cover mainly the core district areas of the cities, and are subject to a number of data caveats related to the calculation method, but directionally should give a fair picture.