Real Estate Foresight's forecast summary for China housing markets in 2023 in key figures:
-new home sales (residential GFA, NBS national measure, 12M y/y) to finish the year +6% by Dec 2023 (vs -27% for Dec 2022);
-new starts (residential GFA, national, 12m y/y) less negative to -12.5% (-40% in 2022);
-new home prices (as measured by the CREIS 100 cities index) slightly up to +2%.
At our 11th annual China Property Outlook seminar last week, we shared and discussed the views, going into further details on cities and developers.
The 'draw the line' survey of participants and online submissions indicates a wide range of expectations for new home sales, from -30% to +10%.
If you are a fund/investor active in China property, please do connect with us to see how our data-driven approach can give you a differentiated view.