Earlier today, we hosted the 11th annual China Property Outlook seminar by Real Estate Foresight, back to the in-person format. We discussed the history and our 2023 forecasts, through the macro, city, developer, and policy lens.
Looking back at these annual sessions and predictions, I draw some broader observations:
a) housing policy changes do work (on the way up as well as down)...but with a lag;
b) the data definitions and caveats may carry a great source of market insight, especially when you see a big difference between the aggregate data and what it feels like on the ground;
c) China housing has a track record of surprising on the upside (except 2022).
Stay tuned for more updates on our 2023 predictions
The chart below - is an aggregate of the 'draw the line' forecasts by the participants and from the earlier online submissions, for the national new home sales (NBS definition) gross floor area sold, 12-month y/y on a rolling monthly basis.