China Property: What will happen to the new home sales in 2023?

For 11 years at Real Estate Foresight, we have been producing annual forecasts for the China housing markets. The 2023 view will be ready for clients in early February.

This year, for our annual 'draw the line' survey, we are also running a separate and open format which you can join here: https://lnkd.in/gx5gAzJR (December 2022 data is due next week).

A rather unusual survey, where we ask participants to... draw the line (suitable for desktop/laptop; single data point on mobile). We will then aggregate these and plot on one chart as a gauge of the range of views on 2023, and share it back. 

The single metric in this survey is the National New Home Sales Growth in terms of the 12-month rolling y/y change. That's likely the single most important data point for the housing market, and hence for developers, commodities, and broader macro conditions. For November 2022, the figure stood at around -25%. 

As for the 'did the experts get it right?' question, take a look at the chart showing the actual vs forecast range from last year (a small focused group) - in the comment below. Some food for thought.