Real Estate Foresight published to clients on Feb 18 its 10th annual forecast for China housing markets, focused on the metrics for the sales volumes and house price growth. 

At an aggregate level, expect another 'year of two halves', and the main scenario where sales volumes measured in 12-month y/y growth in the national NBS new home sales GFA (sqm) figure would end 2022 down around -3% vs 2021, and the house price growth (100 cities) in December 2022 to be +0.8% y/y.

The shape of the curve through the year will be more interesting, though, as will the differences between cities.

The chart below shows a review of how the 2021 forecasts played out vs the actual.

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