China Housing in August
Exciting weeks ahead, as we (plan to) get back to hosting some in-person events in Hong Kong ('Class-D events') to present and discuss our research on China property markets, as well as speaking at other live events.
In this note, we cover the latest on China macro-property data in August.
1. Macro-Property Figures
You can directly download the Macro-Property Data Update we published earlier in the week to clients, as a sample of one type of our regular data updates:
What stands out in August is the shorter-term (3M) sales volume y/y growth turning negative and more clear declines across all land sales growth measures. Note, though, the sales volumes monthly y/y drop (highlighted in some media reports) reflects also the base effects from the highs of the last year's rebound from Covid.
On a year-to-date year-on-year basis, such volumes (in GFA) are still +17%, slowing from +23% in July.
2. House Prices in August
The house price growth indicators for 70 major cities with the NBS new home price indices decelerated in August on all metrics, and the secondary house price indicator saw a month-on-month decline. CREIS data also shows a clear deceleration.
Viewed on a longer-term / year-on-year basis, it's still a 'moderation':
3. What's hot
Evergrande, price controls on both ends, the easing questions, the postponed and newly failed land auctions, mortgage rates, and the Greater Bay Area - are among the latest hot topics - for another conversation.
4. Worth a local read - some curated picks* from recent days
The National Bureau of Statistics responds to China Evergrande Group debt default risk, and its impact on the real estate market remains to be seenFound on Sep 16, 2021 | Source: sohu.com |
The second batch of centralized land supply in many places of the "cold current" land auctions frequently flows outFound on Sep 16, 2021 | Source: hexun.com | 偿债高峰掀起地产并购潮:平均每天超两起,中小房企断臂求生
The peak of debt repayment has set off a wave of real estate mergers and acquisitions: an average of more than two per day, small and medium-sized Developers broken their arms to surviveFound on Sep 14, 2021 | Source: focus.cn |
*NOTE & DISCLAIMER
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