Takeaways from the Shanghai conference, chaired by Robert Ciemniak

On June 28 in Shanghai, Robert Ciemniak, the Founder-CEO of Real Estate Foresight, chaired the annual ‘PERE Investor Forum: Shanghai’, a gathering of 100 or so players in the private equity real estate sector focused on China. Quite a different market landscape from a year ago. Less outbound and more inbound interest, with much tighter[…]

In Pursuit of Patterns: The Most Idiosyncratic Cities In China

China housing is not one market, but it is not 600 different markets either. There are some clear patterns in how some cities behave similarly in their direction of the house price growth, and some exhibit very unique behaviour. A finer understanding of these patterns can help investors better assess the risk in city selection strategies[…]

Chairing PERE Investor Forum: Shanghai on June 28th

Robert Ciemniak, the Founder-CEO of Real Estate Foresight, will chair again the PERE Investor Forum: Shanghai, this year on June 28th. One of the hot topics in 2018: opportunities in co-working and co-living sectors – against the backdrop of the richly priced traditional commercial sectors, policy cooling measures and push for the development of the[…]

Booming Housing Markets in China on the Boarder with North Korea?

There have been a number of reports about the hot property market in Dandong, a Chinese city on the border with North Korea. Here’s Real Estate Foresight’s dynamic view of the house price growth momentum in the city over time, monthly from January 2015 to April 2018, showing the city’s improving performance. We calculate the[…]

Visualising China House Prices

This heatmap from Real Estate Foresight illustrates the patterns of the year-on-year house price growth in China for each of the major 70 cities (each little row) and overall across these cities, between January 2011 and February 2018, using the monthly price index data from the National Bureau of Statistics, including the latest for February,[…]

For the (Chinese) love of AI…

An interesting piece in NYT on China and the AI race. Another major development was the 3-year Action Plan released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China in mid-December, to develop the AI industries in China over the period 2018-2020 ài (愛): “to love; to be fond of; to like; affection; to[…]

2018 Forecast

Real Estate Foresight has published the 2018 Forecast for China housing markets, now the 5th year of our annual forecasts. Our main scenario is a gradual slowdown in the y/y price growth, with sales volumes slowing further but proving more resilient. Watch the land supply as the key factor for 2018, and the ‘city rotation’[…]

6th Annual China Property Outlook seminar by Real Estate Foresight

In January, we held our 6th annual China Property Outlook seminar by Real Estate Foresight in Hong Kong. Big thanks to Baker McKenzie for hosting the event, and to the guest speakers including Warut Promboon蔡善其 (Bondcritic), Dr Jim Walker (Asianomics), Rico Chan (Baker McKenzie) and David Schlesinger (Tripod Advisors).

Applying AI / Machine Learning To Identify Patterns In China Housing Markets

Real Estate Foresight has published a series of notes to clients under the theme “In Pursuit of Patterns”, revealing some interesting patterns (or lack thereof) found among the key indicators for the China’s housing markets (house prices, sales volumes, land sales) and their relationship to the overall stock market and Chinese developers stocks. Available to[…]

Real Estate Foresight – China Property November 2017 Report

Real Estate Foresight has published the flagship monthly China Property report for November 2017, the most comprehensive analysis of the China housing markets, covering house prices, sales volumes, inventory, land sales, construction indicators, developer performance and an extensive range of macro indicators, as well as the Western media sentiment. Available to China Forecast subscribers only[…]