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China Analyst, Macro Hedge Fund
Last Updated: 7 June, 2021

How bad is the situation in lower-tier cities really? Does this default matter? What will be the impact of new land sales rules?

 

You can get with our research and support a much finer and heavily data-grounded answers to your questions that typically fall into a few categories:

 

-hot topics, as new events unfold on a daily basis - like the latest defaults and concerns about specific developers, recent new waves of city-level tightening, new land sales rules for 22 major cities, 3 red lines for major developers, 2 red lines for banks, tax talks, end of shantytown renovation monetarization – to name a few

 

-the recurring themes, such as the ‘reality of lower-tier cities’ (they make up 60% of the total property sales, land sales, referring to non-Tier-1/2, so other than the 40 major cities), or how rental housing reforms will change the market dynamics, or how will the developer consolidation trends play out

 

-the evergreen ‘bubble-or-not’ and fundamental ‘what’s the true demand-supply balance and sustainable annual demand for housing’ questions

 

-the specific forecasts for the sales volumes, prices, new starts, investments, and ‘where are we in the cycle’ questions

 

Sample Components from our Research:

We find the proverbial devil is in the (data) detail holds increasingly true as the investor questions about China property get more specific around data caveats and proper ways to interpret the information.

 

On that topic alone, we have a new "China Property Data 101" presentation module we have delivered on client calls, and Robert Ciemniak contributed a chapter "Navigating the China Property Data Landscape" to a new book published by Springer.

  

China Property Data 101 (clients only)

"Navigating the China Property Data Landscape" book chapter

 

Robert Ciemniak has been a regular speaker over the past 9 years at conferences and private briefings for the buy-side in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Singapore, London and New York, incl. events by major global investment banks.

 

 

Where do we get the data?

 

We license (for the past 9 years, we have been partnering with China Index Academy in Beijing) and also collect a large volume of the underlying raw structured and unstructured data that we then turn into metrics and analytics, including the use of proprietary technology from our sister venture Robotic Online Intelligence (ROI) and its AI-powered research automation and data collection tools.

 

Combining the specialist data-driven analysis with primary research and software development differentiates us from other firms.

 

While we are data-obsessed, we also have an extensive network in the industry, and most of our work has been about detailed due diligence for private equity funds and developers, hence giving us first-hand detailed perspective on the markets.

 

If you would like request our research samples or a free trial and arrange for an introductory call, simply email us at research@realestateforesight.com.

 

 

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